@Article{VecereMonAmaGioSan:2017:PrMoPo,
               author = "Vecere, Annibale and Monteiro, Ricardo and Amann, Walter J. and 
                         Giovinazzi, Sonia and Santos, Raquel Henriques Melo",
          affiliation = "{Scuola Superiore Universitaria IUSS Pavia} and {Scuola Superiore 
                         Universitaria IUSS Pavia} and {Global Risk Forum GRF Davos} and 
                         {University of Canterbury} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Predictive models for post disaster shelter needs assessment",
              journal = "International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction",
                 year = "2017",
               volume = "21",
                pages = "44--62",
                month = "mar.",
             keywords = "Seismic riskShort-term shelter needsPredictive modelsTemporary 
                         housing software tools22nd February 2011 Christchurch 
                         earthquake.",
             abstract = "The assessment of shelter needs of displaced people in the 
                         aftermath of major earthquake events is one the main challenges 
                         that emergency responders currently have to face. Based on the 
                         scale of the disaster, the short-term shelter demand can turn into 
                         a temporary housing need for displaced population, which is a 
                         local government responsibility. The study presented in this paper 
                         is focused on a critical review of currently available 
                         methodologies and corresponding software packages that were 
                         developed specifically for estimating the number of displaced 
                         people and those who will most likely seek public sheltering and 
                         will need temporary housing. The main features and shortcomings of 
                         such tools are highlighted and interpreted with a view to future 
                         improvement and application in the disaster management field. Two 
                         software tools, ERGO-EQ and HAZUS-MH, have been identified as more 
                         exhaustive in considering all the different variables involved in 
                         the shelter needs estimation. For this reason, this study also 
                         includes a full application of those two software tools to a real 
                         case study. Specifically, the modelling of the February 22nd, 2011 
                         Christchurch earthquake is presented, in which hazard, 
                         vulnerability and exposure (both physical and social) were 
                         characterized over a specific area of Christchurch urban area as 
                         input to the aforementioned software tools. The employed tools 
                         yielded different results in terms of dislocated people and 
                         shelter needs estimates, for which a brief discussion is presented 
                         on possible ways to improve and to better reflect the local 
                         conditions, in order to produce more realistic outputs.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.11.010",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.11.010",
                 issn = "2212-4209",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "vecere_predictive.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}